With the summer box office season coming to a close, it’s pretty clear which films are going to wind up as the biggest movies of the year. Jurassic World, Furious 7, Avengers: Age of ultron, Minions, Spectre, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens look to be the titles destined to top end-of-year lists of the top grossers for 2015. Which means attention for the rest of the year shall focus on awards season, whether Star Wars can dethrone Avataron the all-time box office list, and — inevitably — the fortunes of next year’s crop of blockbuster contenders. I’m going to go out on a limb and say I think we can predict with some degree of accuracy which movies are going to rule 2016′s box office, and why. Superheroes, sci-fi and fantasy, and animated family fare will top next year’s charts in a big way, all of them either sequels, spinoffs, remakes, or adaptations of some sort.
I suspect the four top contenders will be Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,Captain America: Civil War, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, andFantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Too bad Warner didn’t title the last one Fantastic Beasts: Where To Find Them, then we’d have a battle of subtitled cinema. But that said, there are several others that demand attention and cannot be ignored as powerful contenders, many of which could indeed challenge the position of those other four movies at the top of the 2016 box office list.
Let’s look at the whole slate of rulers of next year’s releases, and what they have to offer. So, in no particular order…
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Opening in March, the full kickoff of the DC Comics shared cinematic universe is going to do monster business. Batman is a billion dollar brand, having topped that box office high-bar twice in a row with his last two films. Putting him alongside other superheroes seems like an easy bet for continuing that trend. Superman himself rebooted to the tune of $668 million in 2013′s Man of Steel, a figure restrained by the previous Superman reboot/revival’s relatively tepid response and fine but not spectacular $391 million. However, keep in mind that $668 million is what “slight underperforming” looks like to the last son of Krypton, and that we not only have the added value of Batman but also the first-ever big screen Wonder Woman and Aquaman showing up, not to mention probably a Flash cameo and Cyborg in the mix.
It would be absurd and unreasonable to expect those bonuses to produce anything less than a big box office boost. Even if Batman v Superman were bad, I don’t believe that could prevent it from enjoying a blockbuster financial performance north of $800 million, since it’ll open massive around the world and just by the sheer power of the concept and Batman’s presence it should have at least moderate legs. So if it’s good or better, it should break $1 billion. If it’s great, then we’re probably talking Avengerslevel numbers or better. If it’s great, then I think it can match or topAvengers: Age of Ultron, and possibly The Avengers. But even if it manages that feat, can it beat Marvel’s next super-team blockbuster that opens just six weeks later?
Captain America: Civil War
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this will be Marvel’s biggest film yet. Yes, it’s a Captain America sequel, and Cap’s last movie performed at $714 million globally, making it the fifth-highest grossing Marvel Studios movie to date. However, that was a huge leap over his previous star-spangled outing, which clocked $370 million around the world just a few years earlier, and the same team from Winter Soldier in the driver’s seat for Civil War. More to the point, though, this is a Cap sequel that’s really an Avengers-level movie. It features a large cast, including some major newcomers in the form of Spider-Man, Black Panther, and more. Marvel is going to promote this as an event picture, something larger than just a Captain America sequel, because it can in fact be both.
The ace up Marvel’s sleeve is of course Spider-Man, who will interact with other heroes on the big screen for the first time. So it’s a sequel to that awesome Captain America: The Winter Soldier movie you loved, AND it’s got all of the Avengers, AND they fight each other, AND it introduces Spider-Man. If it’s as good as it looks, and as good as the creative team has the potential to make it, then we’re looking at a film that should achieve the same must-see repeat-viewing status of the original Avengers film, but with more theaters and more 3D receipts. I anticipate this will be the movie that performs the way everyone expected Avengers: Age of Ultron to perform (not to suggest Age of Ultron underperformed, it was a massive hit by any measure; I’m merely noting that it was for quite a while assumed it would pass the box office of its predecessor), and will become the highest grossing superhero movie in history. Meaning, yes, even if Batman v Superman surpasses the two Avengers movies on the all-time box office list, I still believe Civil War will end up the reigning champ.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
There are probably only two films that might sneak past the superhero battle royal movies mentioned above and steal the title of highest grossing film of the year, and a Harry Potter spinoff is probably one of them (the other being a spinoff of an even bigger franchise, but we’ll get to that in a moment). J.K. Rowling’s world of wizards brought in $7.7 billion at the worldwide box office and another $2+ billion in home entertainment, with five of the franchise’s eight entries topping $900+ million and the last movie topping $1.3 billion. Suffice to say, this is among the most popular and success properties in cinema history, with more films under it’s brand belt than most other modern film series.
The anticipation for a new Harry Potter-related movie, and one written by Rowling herself no less, should help enhance this movie’s buzz immensely. All it has to do is be good. If it can do that, then I think it’s pretty reasonable to expect it to join the $1 billion club, and if it’s great then it could catch fire and be a breakout akin to this year’s Furious 7 or Jurassic World. Regardless, the franchise connection alone pretty well guarantees this one a spot among 2016′s biggest earners
Finding Dory
I just explained the other day how Minions is on its way to becoming the second-highest grossing animated film in history, headed past $1 billion and destined to sit behind only Frozen on the all-time animation list. Well, this movie is the animated picture that will knock Minions right back out of that #2 position and could even challenge Frozenfor #1. The first Finding Nemo made $864 million… in 2003… without 3D tickets. When it got a 3D rerelease a few years ago, it added $72 million to its coffers, raising its all-time total to $936 million. That’s $1.2 billion in today’s dollars, folks. Meaning if this sequel can match the popularity of the original, it’s going to give Frozen a run for it’s money for sure.
What it must do, however, is not only retain the same family-friendly appeal of its predecessor, but also reach out and appeal to the original fans of the first film who are now in their teens or even early-20s (and might have small children of their own). Meaning it needs to incorporate a bit more humor aimed at older sensibilities without losing the G-rated sensibilities that allowed it to benefit from apparently endless theatrical rewatching by parents and children. Few animated franchises outside of Toy Story seem like such sure bets for topping $1 billion, but this is definitely one of them.
The Jungle Book
It’s early to call this one a likely top performer, but if you saw the footage at D23 this month then you know why this film already looks likely to wow audiences and amaze critics. Jon Favreau knows how to deliver great entertainment, and the imagery from this film was mind-blowing. Nothing you’ve seen in visual effects and CGI work for animals, creatures, and outdoor settings will prepare you for what you’ll see in this film, if the sizzle reel Disney unveiled is any hint of what to expect. Not that crazy-great effects and talking animals in and of itself guarantees blockbuster success, of course. No, what the footage also revealed was a beloved classic story revisited not only with grand scale but also with deep emotions.
I’m betting the footage and buzz is an accurate reflection of what’s coming, and it could turn out to be Disney’s biggest live-action adaptation yet. How high might it climb? The live-action Cinderella topped $542 million this year, with a March release date. The April release date for this new film is slightly better in terms of kids being out of school for Spring Break, and it moves the theatrical run closer to the start of summer box office season. It has to face the competition from Batman v Superman and Captain America: Civil War, as well as The Huntsman, Alice Through the Looking Glass, X-Men: Apocalypse, plus perhaps Ratchet & Clank and The Angry Birds Movie. That sounds bad, but most of those films roll out after The Jungle Book releases, over a period of six weeks. That’s steady competition, but it leaves room for The Jungle Book to open big, hold strong, and get some legs under it. I expect a final tally north of $500+ million, more likely in the $700+ million range.
X-Men: Apocalypse
The X-Men franchise finally found the path to true box office glory last year with X-Men: Days of Future Past, by far the highest grossing entry in the superhero franchise at $748 million. That was a massive leap not only financially, but also for the size of the series’ fanbase. Audiences were so impressed they helped the movie perform like a Marvel Studios production, and next year’s new mutant picture is shaping up to provide audiences more of that comic book aesthetic wrapped around a dramatic, serious approach to superhero storytelling.
The franchise has a loyal following already, so the key is to retain the large influx of new viewers and turn them into solid fans who will keep coming back so long as the studio delivers the goods. Meaning Apocalypse seeks to deliver those goods in spades, and should have no trouble securing a healthy $700+ million for itself as it rides not only its own newly discovered coattails, but those of Batman v Superman and Captain America: Civil War if both of those films prove as good and as popular as seems likely. The audience good will coming off of those films will put theatergoers in the right mood to remember how much they enjoyed Days of Future Past and tune in to this new entry to complete the trifecta of early-summer superhero fun at the box office. My guess is this will happen, and it’ll result in the biggest win yet for the X-Men.
